Oz Election Forums (ozforums.com.au)

According to Sol Lebovic ex-Newspoll big cheese,

"As a matter of fact, [Howard] was further behind at an early stage of the 2001 race. Commentators who are trying to say it's all over forget that Howard has been behind at this stage of the electoral cycle before.  I don't see this as a repeat of 1996, the last election at which there was a change of government. Howard is in a stronger position than Paul Keating was at this stage in 1996."

Neither assertion is correct.  The ALP is in a much stronger position in 2007 than it was in 2001, and is also in a better position than the Coalition was in 1995, at the end of similar periods in the election cycle.  Additionally, Kevin Rudd has superior preferred PM and approval ratings to John Howard as compared to 2001 and 1995.


Primary voting intentions  2001 vs 2007

Jan - Mar 2001  Coalition 38.4  ALP 45.2,  Apr - Jun 2001  Coalition 38.8  ALP 42.4.
Jan - Mar 2007  Coalition 37.8  ALP 47.5,  Apr - Jun 2007  Coalition 37.2  ALP 48.9.

So for the first three months (Jan - Mar)  2001 vs 2007; in 2001 the ALP led the Coalition by 6.8 on the primaries vs 2007 where they led by 9.7; and the second three months (Apr - Jun), in 2001 the ALP led the Coalition by 3.6 vs 2007 where they led by 11.7.


Primary voting intentions 1996 vs 2007

Feb - May 1995  Coalition 48.4  ALP 38.8, Jun - Aug 1995  Coalition 47.1 ALP 40.
Dec - Mar 2007  Labor 47.3  Coalition 38, Apr - Jun 2007   Labor 48.9  Coalition 37.2.

So for the first four months of Howard's leadership in 1995 (Feb - May) vs the first four months of Rudd's leadership in 2007 (Dec - Mar); in 1995 the Opposition (Coalition) led the Govt (ALP) by 9.6 on the primaries vs 2007 where the Opposition (ALP) led the Govt. (Coalition) by 9.3;  and the next three months of Howard's leadership in 1995 (Jun - Aug), the Opposition (Coalition) led the Govt. (ALP) by 7.1 vs 2007 (Apr - Jun) where the Opposition (ALP) led the Govt. (Coalition) by 11.7.


Preferred Prime Minister ratings (6 or 7 months):

1995 Howard 41.8, Keating 37.7 - Howard led by 4.1,
2001 Howard 39.2, Beazley 36.8 - Howard led by 2.4,
2007 Howard 38.8, Rudd 44.8 - Rudd led by 6.0.


Approval Ratings (6 or 7 months):

1995 Howard 48, Keating 33.25 - Howard led by 14.75,
2001 Howard 36.3, Beazley 40 - Beazley led by 3.7,
2007 Howard 44.2, Rudd 62.8 - Rudd led by 18.6.

Last edited by Aristotle (2007-07-09 15:13:22)